“SBCERS History of Economic Assumptions” VS. Actual Pension Fund Performance; covering 20 years 1988 through 2007.

As many of you already know I have been researching the history of Santa Barbara County’s reported SBCERS Pension Earnings and Values for well over two years now. And as I often do I unintentionally complicate my postings by supplying far too much data for everyone to consume. So after five months and with the help of a friend I think I am ready to wow you all with my representation of my pension findings and will do so by using just two documents and some simple math.

The first document (found at the end of this posting)I have for you today is titled “SBCERS History of Economic Assumptions” and covers 1981 through 2009. For my presentation I will be starting with 1988 and ending in 2007 which is 20 years of coverage. Really this document is a basic guideline of performance required to full fill all the pensions’ future obligations. So in an effort to keep things simple I averaged out each category over 20 years and here are the results.

                 SBCERS History of Economic Assumptions

1988-2007

A. The 20 Year Earnings Rate Assumptions Average for the pension was    8.15%

B. The 20 Year CPI Inflation Assumptions Average for the pension was      4.75%

C. The 20 Year Expected Real Rate of Return Average for the pension was 3.40%

Or A – B = C

Call me simple but I am assuming that if the pension met all 3 these assumptions created by our County leader’s then one could also expect that there would be no future pension value shortfalls. Unfortunately for us the Santa Barbara County Pension is currently reported to have a One Billion dollar deficit.

Now the second document (below after Doc 1) I have for your review today has already averaged out the pensions 20 years performance for us. We might call document 1 the before and document 2 the after.

 History of Actual SBCERS PensionPerfomance

1988-2007

A. The Actual 20 Year Earnings Rate Average for the Pension was             10.10%

B. The Actual 20 Year CPI Inflation Average for the Pension was                3.10%

C. The Actual 20 Year Real Rate of Return Averaged for the Pension was  7.00%

Or A – B = C

People I ask is it just me or did the pension actually exceed in spectacular fashion what our County leader’s had hoped for. Under A the actual 20 Year Earnings exceeded the assumption by almost 20% and under B the actual 20 Year CPI Inflation Average was almost 35% lower than the assumption. It gets better folks because of these two outstanding results our real net return was actually more than double the assumption of 3.40% and came in at a full 7.00%.

Dear Santa Barbara County Residents and County Employees how is it that our SBCERS pension netted more than twice the desired real net return. Had additional funds contributed over the same 20 years because of an alleged UN funded balance, and is still reported to have a 1 Billion dollar deficit? Now can you all understand why I have been saying for two years now it is mathematically impossible for the SBCERS pension to be anything but fully funded and with a rather large surplus.

Document 1

SBCERS History of Economic Assumptions
1988-2007
A. The 20 Year Earnings Rate Assumptions Average for the pension was 8.15%
B. The 20 Year CPI Inflation Assumptions Average for the pension was 4.75%
C. The 20 Year Expected Real Rate of Return Average for the pension was 3.40%
Or A – B = C

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Document Two below

S.B.C.C.C. The place where COMMON SENSE never goes out of style!

 

Advertisements

About magicinsantabarbara

Our Santa Barbara Criminal and Civil Superior Courts often abuse’s us with illegal and unjust judgments and convictions. So I investigate, law enforcement, judge’s, elected officials and our California Public Pensions trying to expose the corruption we are being forced to accept. We must always respect and support those who practice the law in an even and ethical manner and demand it from those who do not. Here you can find data for SBCERS, VECRA, LACERA .pensions as well as others.
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to “SBCERS History of Economic Assumptions” VS. Actual Pension Fund Performance; covering 20 years 1988 through 2007.

  1. Very well written post. It will be valuable to anybody who utilizes it, as well as myself. Keep doing what you are doing – for sure i will check out more posts.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s